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Rupee Moment on 1st Week of New Year
Thursday, 26 March 2015 11:42

Rupee Moment on 1st Week of New Year

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Let's understand Rupee moment on 1st week of January 2014. Below table shows INR High and Low on 1st week of January every year, for last 5 years.

Year

1st week High

1st week low

Difference

2013

55.33

54.26

1.07

2012

53.34

52.61

0.73

2011

45.47

44.64

0.83

2010

46.66

45.56

1.1

2009

49.13

48.16

0.97

Average movement in first week is approximately 94 paisa. In 2010 we saw maximum volatility of past 5 years. INR appreciated 1.1 rupee. In first week of year most of volatility is function of low liquidity for last some days. This leads to market adjustments which make sure that High low have 2% average volatility in case of INR.

This time we have seen RBI actions and inflation driving market for last few months. In Jan first week, many data are lined up, which includes PMIs, FOMC meeting minutes etc. We may expect INR to remain in range of 61.50 to 62.66, in case we see high volatility. Market may discount inflation data post PMI report on India.

 
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