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Friday, 27 March 2015 18:33

Maize

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Maize Strategy Till 09/01/15
Security Trend Lower Side Upper Side Recommendation
Maize Down 900 1250 Sell on high
Risk to View: Farmers shift to maize production may increase overall output.
Today's Update:

India:

>Firm buying and slow supply in the physical market has supported Maize prices. Increasing demand by consuming industry has supported commodity prices.

Global Market:

>Corn prices fell at U.S. market due to weak export demand and ample supply.

>China, the No. 2 grower, will produce less for the first time in five years. Output will fall 3.6 percent, the biggest drop in a decade, to 210.6 million tons.

>World output will be 979.7 million tons, the London-based International Grains Council said on Oct. 30, raising its outlook for a sixth time

>Corn futures have fell 13 percent this year on the Chicago Board of Trade.

>U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its crop estimate by 0.5 percent and said that stockpiles at the end of the season will be 3.5 percent smaller than predicted in October.Prices gained as much as 3.1 percent after the surprise cut.

>Farmers have harvested 89 percent of the U.S. corn crop, up from 80 percent a week ago and slightly higher than five-year average of 88 percent, the USDA said on Monday.

Major Events Affecting Maize:

>More harvesting and favorable weather likely to lower international corn prices.

>Abundant supply and less demand is expected to keep corn prices under pressure at global market.

>As per the first advance estimate of 2014-15 by ministry of agriculture Kharif Maize production may come near to 16.03 million tonnes against the target of 17.0 million tonnes

Friday, 27 March 2015 18:28

Cotton

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Pan Capital Services Ltd. Cotton Report
Strategy Till 15 October Major event Affecting Cotton
Commodity Trend Lower Side Upper Side Recommendation for Traders

> China mills import of cotton.

> China cotton policy of allowing import of only 1 ton to 4 ton of inventory buying+ lower price gap

 

Cotton Global-Stable 15000 17500 Cotton ICE has reached its lower levels close to 62.22 cents. Please wait for further positions.

Risk to View: INR depreciation:
> Weak Indian and chinese Monsoon: Monsoon is good.
> US crop damaged by weather.: Moisture level was high last month In US.



 
 
          Major Events Affecting Cotton Market
 Strategy Till  30/10/2014
Commodity  Trend Lower Side Upper Side  Recommendation For Traders
Cotton

Down
17000-19000

16500 20000  To sell on all high ticks, All crops in US China India are doing good and expected to increase production.

> INR depreciation will be capped near 60.50-61.50 range.
> Rain is expected to improve which may push already high price down.
> China demand will decrease while Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh will increase consumption.

> Risk to view: Heavy INR depreciation. Rain Deficiency in US and Austrailia.

14 October 2014: CCI has said that Indian cotton production will be more than estimated 39 million bales it is expected tor reach 40 million bales. This may not support higher cotton prices.

10 October 2014: No game changing data is announced on cotton last week. We may still see ICE range movements. Expected to have increase in volume post November.

01 October 2014: Pakistan flood affected areas will reduce cotton ouput which in turn increase import to Pakistan for cotton. This is expected to be at 2 million bales (1 bales is equal to 170 kg). China not going to import cotton to the extent they imported last year. Overall outlook remains same, cotton is still bearish.

29 Sep 2014: Cotton slightly up from yday low. Farmers are refraining from selling cotton in market. Cotton prices is at critical point. In spot US it has gone close to 52 where Govt support triggers. China is expected to import 1.3 million matric tonnes of cotton which is half quantity last year.

23 Sep 2014: Cotton slumped to 62.22 dec delivary ICE contract which led to MCX cotton drop to 16000 levels. It is in line with expectations. Markets fall after news coming that chinese mills will not but cotton to previous year level.

17 Sep 2014 - 22 Sep 2014: China Cotton Policy: China cotton policy is changed. They used to support cotton prices overall if they used to go below certain level. As per new policy they will let market decide cotton prices. If cotton prices below set level then they will directly fund cotton producers. This will bring prices lower. ICE cotton is trading at 64.03 22 sep 8:52 IST.

16/09/2014: China cotton imports in August fell 26% Y/y to 204,500 tons, according to Cncotton.com, a website operated by China National Cotton Information Center, citing data from the nation customs bureau.

15/09/2014: More than 25% of global agricultural production is in areas of high water stress, according to the World Resources Institute. The figure rises to 56% for irrigated cropland, which produces 40% of the global food supply. More than half of cotton production -- one of the most water-intensive crops -- happens in regions of high or extremely high stress. Increasing water stress in agriculture is fueling demand for seed varieties that reduce the need for water.

 

12/09/2014: Cotton rises as USDA forecast lower inventory and production. US stock piles expected to be at 5.2 million bales lower than prior estimate of 5.6 million bales. ICE cotton for december delivery rises to 68.01 cent approximately 1% rise.

 

11/09/2014: We can see that CAI and ICAC has different view on Indian output, ICAC says it will be around 6.3 million tons and CAI belives output will be at 6.86 million tons. If CAI is true than India will be largest producer of cotton. This leaves world with more inventory to trade cotton negatively.

 

10/09/2014: Cotton association of India has estimated cotton supply of 468.50 lac bales while domestic consumption is estimated to be 300 lac bales. India will have 168.50 lac bales for export.

 

09/09/2014: Output in Pakistan may rise to 10 million bales (Bales weight 480 lbs or 218 kg), In India cotton exports is likely to fall on sluggish demand from China. It is expected to export 7.69 million bales.

 

08/09/2014: Australia cotton production may be down to 580,000 matric tons from 890,000 a year earlier as water supply decreases in said area.

 

05/09/2014: No specific news on Cotton. ICE is trading slightly below yesterday around 65 cents.

 

04/09/2014: China, to encourage domestic cotton will stop selling inventories once fresh cotton is in Market.

> Global inventories expected to rise to 22.25mt increase of 0.62mt more than forecast.

 

03/09/2014: Production will fall to 29.5m bales in 12 mos. that started Aug. 1 from 30.5m a year earlier, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service says in report posted today on website.

 Exports will drop to 6m bales from 9.2m
 NOTE: Bale weighs 480 lbs, or 218 kgs

 02/09/2014: > Brazil's area planted with cotton should increase by 8 percent this season from a year earlier as prices for the fiber remain more favorable.

 > Area under cotton has risen to a record 12.25 million hectares, an increase of 12 per cent over last year 11.16 million ha and is poised to touch 12.5 million ha with plantings still on in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

 01/09/2014: >Plentiful supply from the new crop should limit prices of the December contract to under 70 cents a lb. Supply concerns eased further after rain was received in the dry West Texas and Georgia cotton growing regions on Thursday, Accuweather.com data showed.

28/08/2014: Low pressure areas in Gulf of Maxico is expected to bring rain in taxas area where balls have already set it. If rain is higher than normal then it will drive production lower and increase prices.

27/08/14 Comments: China advises to store new cotton arrivals for Chinese cotton farmers.

 

Friday, 27 March 2015 18:24

Agri Report

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Friday, 27 March 2015 18:18

Commodity Report

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07/07/14: Sample

 

 

Friday, 27 March 2015 18:05

Trade Ideas

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Friday, 27 March 2015 16:26

Pivot Points

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Currencies 1W S3 1W S2 1W S1 1W Pivot 1W R1 1W R2 1W R3
USDINR 63.508 64.013 64.34.1 64.518 64.846 65.023 65.528
EURUSD 1.0596 1.0757 1.0815 1.0918 1.0976 1.1079 1.1240
GBPUSD 1.2761 1.2851 1.2892 1.2941 1.2982 1.3031 1.3121
USDJPY 109.63 111.59 112.78

113.55

114.74 115.51 117.47
USDCHF 0.9554 0.9781 0.9926 1.0008 1.0153 1.0235 1.0462
USDCAD 1.3480 1.3592 1.3655 1.3704 1.3767 1.3816 1.3928
AUDUSD 0.7169 0.7267 0.7305 0.7365 0.7403 0.7463 0.7561
NZDUSD 0.6772 0.6839 0.6867 0.6906 0.6934 0.6973 0.7040
Wednesday, 25 March 2015 20:12

Currency Direction

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Currency Direction  Expected Target  Duration
Events
USD/INR Bullish 60.50 25th July

All US data

 EUR/USD Bearish 1.3450 24th July

 24/07:  All PMI data

GBP/USD Bullish  1.7150 24th  July

23/07: BOE Gov Carney Speech

USD/JPY Bullish 102.01 25th July

25/07: CPI data

Wednesday, 25 March 2015 20:11

Commodity Direction

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CommodityDirection  Expected Target  Duration
Events
Gold Down Trend 28400 30/06-05/07

1.U.S. Manufacturing Data

2.U.S. Non Farm Employment Change

3.U.S. Unemployment Rate

4..U.S. Trade Balance

Crude oil Down Trend 6300 30/06-05/07

1.Crude Oil Inventory

2.China Manufacturing Data

3.U.S. Trade Balance

 

Copper Up Trend 435 30/06-05/07

1.China Manufacturing Data

2.U.S. Manufacturing Data

3.U.K. Manufacturing Data

Wednesday, 25 March 2015 20:10

Buyers Credit

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We at PANCAPS work with more than 100 Overseas Banks offering Best Buyers Credit & Suppliers credit quotes for Importers. Our arrangement with various banks across globe helps us to arrange cheapest possible quotes. Quotations is done depending upon bank, amount and tenor.

Buyer's Credit

This strategy is used to arrange funds for financing “Sight L/C’s” and for “Rollovers” in which the corporate extends the payment maturity date.

Call 9228070610 or mail your BC queries at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 Best BC Rate:

Best Deals For Week
No of Days Libor USD 10,000 to 20,000 USD 20,000 to 50,000 USD 50,000 to 70,000 USD 1,00,000 or more
90 Days 2.14 125 80 75 45
180 Days 2.32

120

75

60 45
360 Days 2.59 110 60 60 40

 

Buyer's Credit Process Flow

BUYERSCREDIT2
Buyer's Credit Advantages:
  • Buyers credit helps local importers access to cheaper foreign funds close to LIBOR rates as against local sources of funding which are costly compared to LIBOR rate.
  • Importer gets extended date for making an import payment as per the cash flows
  • The importer can deal with exporter on sight basis, negotiate a better discount and use the buyer's credit route to avail financing.
  • Further rollover of buyers credit can be done if the importer has short term liquidity problem
  • The funding currency can be in any FCY (USD, GBP, EURO, JPY etc.) depending on the choice of the customer.
  • The importer can use this financing for any form of trade viz. open account, collections, or LCs.

The currency of imports can be different from the funding currency, which enables importers to take a favorable view of a particular currency.

 

Wednesday, 25 March 2015 20:09

Premium Advisory

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