Wednesday, 25 March 2015 15:57

Would RBI taper the oil window in near term?

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On 28th Aug, 13 rupee made the all time low of 68.85. On this date RBI opened a swap window for oil marketing companies IOC, HPCL and BPCL to control their dollar buying from the market and also did heavy selling of dollar in the market. RBI also opened FCNR Deposit window on 4th Sept to attract foreign funds. These all the steps together pushed rupee to the substantial high of 60.93 on 18th Oct.

Now FCNR window will get close on 30th Nov. After that the swap window opened for oil marketing companies and better economic data can only appreciate rupee.

If we put economic results aside then the factor controlling rupee is the only one. Now the question is when RBI will close this window and where will we see rupee after this closure.

If RBI closes SWAP window for oil companies, rupee may again start depreciating. We know that if FED start tapering by the year end there will be heavy depreciation in INR. RBI may wait till the Fed take tapering decision because stimulus cut will depreciate rupee heavily and if RBI close the SWAP window during that time (tapering time) then it may not have significant impact on the currency as it(rupee) has already get discounted.

After November we may see rupee in the range of 63- 64.5. Fed decision will remain crucial for volatile rupee. Foreign fund outflow may also dip the currency if currency continues depreciation. All things depend on various factors we may see change in currency scenario in nearby weeks.

 

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