Monday, 06 April 2015 06:03

Rupee may become volatile as U.S. data are lined up

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Rupee trading bit stronger after closing weak yesterday on 63.57. Today market opened at 63.51 and remains little strong against dollar.

Yesterday there was high selling from foreign investors that made domestic indices fall. Foreign investors sold 15.7billion rupees of local stock yesterday but on the other side there was heavy buying from domestic investors as they pumped 11.89b rupees into local market.

In the week ahead there are some very important data releases that might bring volatility in rupee.

Today U.S. ADP to release non-farm employment change and Bureau of Economic Statistics will release trade balance data. ADP non-farm is expected to improve to 227k from earlier 208k and trade deficit is expected to fall by $1b to $42.3b.

FOMC meeting minutes will be released tomorrow that may provide insight on chances of Feds interest rate decision. Hawkish view of any member may affect the market.

U.S. Non-farm employment change and unemployment rate are the most important events of this week. According to estimate non-farm employment change is expected to increase by 241k, 80k less than earlier reading but above 200k data shows better condition of labor market. Unemployment rate is also expected to fall to 5.7% from last 5.8%.

Rupee may show gap opening on Monday if reading of non-farm employment comes better than expected. Other data are not likely to bring major change in Indian rupee.


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